There's been a few moments in the recent past when the best thing to do is just to laugh. One was when the Governor of the Central Bank told RTE listeners in the midst of last year's freefall in banking that the top banking minds in the world were working overtime to solve the problem. I nearly ran out of the house screaming.
Another was yesterday when Taoiseach Brian Cowen, speaking at a safe distance from Japan told us all to get real. I almost threw up on my wasabi sauce – this is coming from the former Minister for Finance and Bertie Ahern acolyte whose policies have caused much of our problems and who, until the evidence was overwhelming denied the scale of Ireland's economic slump and miscalculated the deficit by several billions!
Course the Taoiseach's comments were a coded address the public sector union chiefs. The game is finally on as these erstwhile partners are forced to admit that both sides are overpaid for what they do, that their pensions need to be capped and, without severe adjustments we're screwed.
The unions will demand equivalent measures elsewhere, correctly arguing that public pay and pensions alone isn't the panacea. That spells a widening of the tax system and the sale of State assets. You can also expect measures like hiring grants to encourage employment and business expansion to Ireland but other than that, it's everyone to the lifeboats as we pay a very high price for the economic disaster which was the last Government. Somewhere in the Dept of Finance there's a confidential memo circulating and on it are:
- Property Tax on homes – political hotspot even with tapering measures
- Property Tax definitely on second homes.
- New round of Stealth Taxes- the Taliban at Finance does sneaky taxes expertly.
- Benefit in Kind widens, parking, crèches, maybe even security of tenure.
- Curbs in social benefits and pension tax relief.
- Postponement of non-key capital projects
- Higher income levies for high earners.
- Increase in capital taxes, CGT and CAT. Corporation tax will be untouched.
- Cuts in Health and Education the two big spending sectors.
- Sale of Port Authorities, Airport Authorities, Bord Gais etc
- Sale of non-essential State lands and properties.
- Breakup and part sale of the ESB.
Still there's two reasons to be cheerful:
- While it's a racing certainty that political and public upheaval will grip Ireland as this lame duck Government fails to recapture the dressing room it lost by bungling since coming into office, the global rallying point is arriving next week as the new US President is inaugurated. Sure, Obama is only human and will make mistakes but his arrival will inject a new fire and confidence into the US economy. While the media focuses on rising unemployment which is a lagging indicator, there are some early indicators that the world's economic engine room will stage a comeback later this year
- Wang Guiying, worried that she's become too much for her nieces and nephews since breaking her leg in 2004 is looking to marry for the first time. What's wonderful about Wang, who lives in the boom city of Chongqing in China, is that she's 107, in the market for a centenarian groom and now scouring old folk's homes to find a suitable candidate. Now that's what I call confidence in the future – life remains exciting!
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