In 1975 Peter Benchley's book about a big fish was turned into a Spielberg blockbuster. It scared the living daylights out of audiences worldwide. Jaws stopped people swimming in the sea. Its dramatic technique was to build tension - by not showing the shark, just threatening us with it. By the time we'd caught a glimpse of the Great White munching its way through the middle classes we were simply too frightened to think rationally about taking a dip in the cold waters off Fountainstown, Salthill or Bundoran –every coastal village was Amity, Jaws lurked in shallow waters and we were dinner. But by the time Jaws II hit the screens we were hooting in derision at the burning rubber that marked its ending. The Jaws period had passed. So too is the Greek’s.

Last year Greek default was touted as the Great White, ready to eat our banking system alive and, with it, tear into the fleshy corpse of Europe. The narrative suited Eurozone policymakers, buying time before the fiscal compact and ECB quantitative easing that marked the end of the beginning of the Eurozone crisis. Now Eurozone policy script writers talk fearlessly about Greek default and exit.

The Greek economy has already shrunk -16% and is on track to exceed Argentina's -20% ten years ago. But unlike Argentina, the Greeks, within the Euro, have no positive incentive, merely more poverty for years to come. Greece continues to play chicken with its creditors, refusing to close a €325m gap after already announcing cuts to minimum wage of 22% and slashing 15,000 jobs from its obese public sector. But despite closing its annual deficit, Greece has continuously failed to hit targets, not least of all selling off up to €60bn in state assets. It will require budget surpluses for years to come just to hit its annual interest bill estimated to cost over 6% of GDP. The alternative is default, Euro exit, rapid devaluation of a new Drachma and inflation. The Greek banking system would be wiped and with it much of its citizen’s savings. The choice facing Greeks is either a prolonged series of muggings over many years or a truly savage once off beating in the ghetto. It’s a horrific choice but that is the price when the political elite cook the books and borrow excessively to finance unaffordable lifestyles for a public sector paid three times the private sector, while turning a blind eye to endemic tax evasion.

The tough line being taken with Greece by fellow EU members reflects a huge shift in emphasis. In the early days it seemed that only Greece, Portugal and, Ireland required structural reform through austerity. Since then austerity has clamped its jaws around Spain and Italy and to a lesser degree to most other member countries. The jury is out on how deep or shallow the 2012 economic dip across the Eurozone €9.5 trillion economy will be, but one thing is clear – the Eurozone needs a winner in the internal devaluation game.

That's where Ireland comes in. Ireland must be seen to succeed. Read from that an imminent soft restructuring of Ireland's debt with particular emphasis on the promissory notes for Anglo. But that will not prevent the inevitable ending. Greece has shown that it is the last few billion in cuts that cause the most precious blood to shed. That is precisely what union chiefs have written into the narrative of Irish social solidarity. By pulling the entire public sector to the safety of Croke Park the most vulnerable among the rest are to be offered up as the sacrifice.

Eddie