By Friday lunchtime it is pretty clear that the imminent danger of a catastrophic Eurozone rupture before Xmas has greatly diminished. In agreeing the outline of a new Treaty in the early hours of Friday morning all seventeen Eurozone members and Euro wannabes have moved quite dramatically, shifting the entire centre of balance in the EU and leaving Britain in a perilous position.
I watched David Cameron’s body language and listened to his rhetoric before the Summit. His lack of experience of big politics shone through as he bristled with youthful vigour, listening only to the voices inside his head and failing to see the beyond. He has made a catastrophic error of judgement and, in my view, handed Ireland a vital new plank in our recovery if we smart enough to grasp it.
By insisting on ring-fencing The City to appease Conservative EU sceptics, Cameron may have greatly damaged Britain’s vital financial services industry, effectively shutting Britain out of the new EU that is emerging. It is an opportunity Ireland cannot afford to waste. We are within the same time zone, a short hop from London, speak the same lingo and have a highly skilled workforce ready to go at the IFSC. Many financial behemoths head quartered their Northern hemisphere and European operations in London, largely because it afforded full access to the single market.
But as Britain, no longer the reluctant European recasts itself as the non-participating European, the message to mobile financial firms couldn’t be any clearer – get yourself over to Dublin and Cork.
The deal itself however will not fix the crisis. Provided it passes Parliaments and the Irish electorate to which we must insist it is put to popular vote, the new sanctions which will be overseen by majority voting, tells markets that, in future, disciplinary measures will be in place. But two other vital planks are missing that guarantee that the crisis will rage into next year.
The first is the fire hose – there are no visible plans yet at the ECB is prepared to hose down sharply rising bond yields from the fragile Italian and Spanish economies with enough money creation, to calm markets. Too much confidence has been bled down the drains after past Summits for any type of quick normalisation.
But the ECB, under Mario Draghi may be playing a canny hand just sprinkling enough money on the secondary bond market to keep yields from going critical in order to stiffen Governments spines to force through deeply unpopular austerity, sign off the new treaty and buy time for the European Stability Mechanism to takeover next summer. The ECB has no difficulty in providing almost unlimited liquidity to banks who, on the eve of the Summit have been told to raise another €114bn in capital. That, I guess is hardly enough to bolster Spanish banks rocked by the implosion of a property bubble on a scale to our own. Much more cash will be needed before this is over.
The second missing plank, as I write, is that there is no strategy for growth. Austerity without growth cannot and will not succeed and the newly reconstructed Eurozone will eventually fail if, as I suspect, rich countries will refuse to transfer excesses to poor countries- the ultimate test of solidarity and of the currency union itself. So breathe a sigh of relief but be prepared for another year of drama, setbacks and high stakes poker as this new European baby emerges screaming and kicking from her birth with very big question marks still remaining over whether she will survive to maturity.
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