The phoney holiday, when Irish banks pulled in their claws during the great rescue, is nearly over. As predicted the big bank squeeze on ordinary customers is about to begin as banks turn on the taxpayers that bailed them out to fatten margins in an effort to repair their ruined balance sheets - and make their NAMA repayments.
It is the worst result for ordinary Irish depositors and borrowers that, having driven the ambulance to the scene of the accident and saved the banks from certain death, their response now is to charge us for it. Of course the butcher's bill has been delayed while banks engaged with Government and, cut off from capital markets, desperately sought new deposits, but don't let that fool you.
Last year that meant offering gravity defying deposit rates despite historic lows in the ECB base rate but as soon as the first tranche of NAMA loan capital is in place in a few weeks, all bets are off, as banks ruthlessly pursue every trick in the book to grow their profits. So get ready to be mugged by;
- Variable deposit rates that quickly drift closer to 1%, more than halving the interest currently paid.
- Fixed rates that will similarly decline and settle closer to 1.5% over one year, 2.75% over two and 4% over five years
- Non-NAMA banks, detecting less competition, that drop their offers, further squeezing depositors, especially retired people reliant on interest income to pay the bills.
- Inevitably capital will be eroded to pay for lifestyle costs hitting the most vulnerable hardest
- A flight of money will commence with Life Offices and Intermediaries puffing up arcane product constructions like tracker bonds that lock in your capital for at least two years.
- Smart money will drift to European Government Bonds especially inflation-linked bonds but ensure that the mix is carefully managed to avoid losing heavily on distressed sovereign debt, like the Greece's.
- Mortgage rates will continue to go up as margins are widened to whatever the market can bear without toppling over.
- Tracker mortgage customers will be eyed with particular greed hoping to entice them into fatter fixed rate deals at the earliest warning of ECB rate rises.
- Rolling credit agreements like overdrafts and certain term loans will be culled to get rid of perceived higher risk customers.
- Loan renewal dates will be particularly targeted to demand higher interest rates despite clean service histories from small businesses
- A new breed of predator will prowl the bank customer base looking for any excuse to charge more. Negotiation won't be tolerated whenever they can get away with it.
- Despite bank spin to the contrary and the NAMA capital, the credit ghetto will expand, populated by former customers the banks now see as too high risk in the economic depression they helped create.
- Fork-tongued Government Ministers will publicly condemn the banks but implicitly support them and do nothing.
- Opposition spokespeople will harvest the anger for more market share but come up with no explicit policies on how they'd fix it.
- Bertie, desperate to repair his brand will continue to blame Lehmann Brothers a bit like the plumber blaming Climate Change for not burying his burst water pipes deep enough.

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